Politics event

Brazil Presidential Election Odds

Current market-implied probabilities, liquidity, volume, and resolution details for Brazil Presidential Election.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%price 0.60
Flávio Bolsonaro23%price 0.23
Renan Santos11%price 0.11
Ronaldo Caiado2%price 0.02

Updated Jul 11, 2026, 4:05 PM UTC

Event Data

CategoryPolitics
Statusactive
End DateOct 4, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Total Volume112.08M
24h Volume209.62K
Liquidity9.68M
Slugbrazil-presidential-election

Resolution

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Probabilities are market-implied prices. They can move quickly as new information, liquidity, and trader positioning change.

Outcomes

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61% probability · price 0.60
Flávio Bolsonaro23% probability · price 0.23
Renan Santos11% probability · price 0.11
Ronaldo Caiado2% probability · price 0.02
Jair Bolsonaro2% probability · price 0.02
Michelle Bolsonaro1% probability · price 0.01
Romeu Zema1% probability · price 0.01
Camilo Santana1% probability · price 0.01
Fernando Haddad1% probability · price 0.01
Geraldo Alckmin0% probability · price 0.00
Tarcisio de Freitas0% probability · price 0.00
Eduardo Bolsonaro0% probability · price 0.00
Tereza Cristina0% probability · price 0.00
Ratinho Júnior0% probability · price 0.00
Eduardo Leite0% probability · price 0.00
Aldo Rebelo0% probability · price 0.00

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Market data and prediction-market prices are for informational purposes only. They are not investment advice and do not guarantee future outcomes.