Iran event

US charges Hormuz fees by...? Odds

Current market-implied probabilities, liquidity, volume, and resolution details for US charges Hormuz fees by...?.

December 3110%price 0.10
August 314%price 0.04
July 311%price 0.01
July 170%price 0.00

Updated Jul 15, 2026, 10:19 AM UTC

Event Data

CategoryIran
Statusactive
End DateDec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
Total Volume699.58K
24h Volume570.83K
Liquidity457.98K
Slugus-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260713151243232

Resolution

This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement. The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.

Probabilities are market-implied prices. They can move quickly as new information, liquidity, and trader positioning change.

Outcomes

December 3110% probability · price 0.10
August 314% probability · price 0.04
July 311% probability · price 0.01
July 170% probability · price 0.00

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Market data and prediction-market prices are for informational purposes only. They are not investment advice and do not guarantee future outcomes.