Trump-Machado event

Venezuela leader end of 2026? Odds

Current market-implied probabilities, liquidity, volume, and resolution details for Venezuela leader end of 2026?.

Nicolás Maduro81%price 0.81
Delcy Rodríguez13%price 0.13
María Corina Machado2%price 0.02
No Head of State2%price 0.02

Updated Jul 15, 2026, 10:17 AM UTC

Event Data

CategoryTrump-Machado
Statusactive
End DateDec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Total Volume93.68M
24h Volume103.06K
Liquidity1.99M
Slugvenezuela-leader-end-of-2026

Resolution

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir

Probabilities are market-implied prices. They can move quickly as new information, liquidity, and trader positioning change.

Outcomes

Nicolás Maduro81% probability · price 0.81
Delcy Rodríguez13% probability · price 0.13
María Corina Machado2% probability · price 0.02
No Head of State2% probability · price 0.02
Jorge Rodríguez1% probability · price 0.01
Edmundo González1% probability · price 0.01
Diosdado Cabello Rondón0% probability · price 0.00
Vladimir Padrino López0% probability · price 0.00
Dinorah Figuera0% probability · price 0.00
Donald Trump0% probability · price 0.00
Marco Rubio0% probability · price 0.00
Pete Hegseth0% probability · price 0.00
Evan Pettus0% probability · price 0.00
Frank Donovan0% probability · price 0.00
Dan Caine0% probability · price 0.00
Richard Grenell0% probability · price 0.00

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Market data and prediction-market prices are for informational purposes only. They are not investment advice and do not guarantee future outcomes.