Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27? Odds

If a party nominee in Maine voluntarily withdraws from their election by July 13 at 5:00PM ET, their political party may replace them by July 27 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve according to the individual who is the Maine Democratic Party's apparent nominee for the 2026 U.S. Senate election on July 27 at 11:59PM ET. This market will consider Graham Platner to be the apparent nominee unless he withdraws from the election, voluntarily or otherwise. If Graham Platner has withdrawn from the election, an official announcement by the Maine Democratic Party that an individual has been chosen as the replacement nominee will qualify such individual as the apparent nominee, regardless of any subsequent legal steps that have yet to be confirmed. In the event that there is not an apparent nominee in this election, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official announcements of the results from the Maine Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Probabilities are market-implied prices. They can move quickly as new information, liquidity, and trader positioning change.