Military Strikes event
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Odds
Current market-implied probabilities, liquidity, volume, and resolution details for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?.
Updated Jul 11, 2026, 6:14 PM UTC
Event Data
Resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Probabilities are market-implied prices. They can move quickly as new information, liquidity, and trader positioning change.
Outcomes
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Market data and prediction-market prices are for informational purposes only. They are not investment advice and do not guarantee future outcomes.