CXMT IPO Preview: DRAM Giant Earning ¥360M Daily, Full Investment Analysis

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Quick Guide (TL;DR)

• CXMT IPO enters final sprint: New share subscription starts on July 16, 2026 (ticker: 787825), aiming to raise 29.5 billion yuan, the second-largest IPO on ChiNext
• Explosive earnings growth: Q1 2026 net profit attributable to parent company was 24.762 billion yuan, up 1688% year-on-year, with projected H1 net profit of 50-57 billion yuan
• Global DRAM "fourth pole": Global market share reached 7.67% in Q4 2025, doubling from 3.97% in Q2 in just six months
• Core target for domestic substitution: China's only IDM achieving large-scale DRAM production, with three 12-inch wafer fabs and capacity of 300,000 wafers/month
• Significant supply chain boost: IPO fundraising will directly drive the entire semiconductor ecosystem including equipment, materials, and packaging/testing, benefiting 27 core supply chain companies

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1. Complete IPO Process Review: From Application to Subscription, Setting a New Record for A-Share Review

The ChiNext IPO process of ChangXin Technology Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "CXMT") is a benchmark case for the listing of hard tech companies in China. As the first pilot project under the ChiNext "pre-review" reform mechanism, its review efficiency has reshaped market perceptions of IPO cycles for large semiconductor companies.

1.1 Key Milestones

Source: SSE announcements, CXMT prospectus

From application to registration approval, the process took only 165 days, an unprecedented efficiency for large hard tech IPOs in China. In contrast, the review cycle for traditional IPOs of similar scale typically takes 12-18 months. This fully reflects the policy preference and support for hard tech companies considered "national critical assets" by regulators.

1.2 Key Parameters of Issuance Plan (Officially Confirmed)

CXMT's issuance this time adopts a combination of strategic placement, offline issuance, and online issuance. The issuance price was officially confirmed on July 14, 2026:

Source: Changxin Technology IPO Announcement (July 14, 2026)

Oversubscription Analysis: Planned to raise 29.5 billion RMB, actual funds raised approximately 57.92 billion RMB, oversubscribed by ~2x. This reflects strong institutional investor demand for Changxin Technology — during the price inquiry phase, 11,537 accounts managed by 333 institutional investors submitted bids, with a bid range of 7.26 RMB/share to 65.19 RMB/share, and total intended subscription volume reaching 1,286.062 billion shares, over 190 times the issue size.

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II. Company Fundamentals: China's Only DRAM IDM Leader

2.1 Company Overview

Changxin Technology was established on June 13, 2016, with headquarters in Hefei Economic and Technological Development Zone, Anhui Province. It is China's largest, most technologically advanced, and most comprehensively positioned DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) integrated device manufacturer (IDM).

Source: Changxin Technology IPO Prospectus (May 17, 2026 updated version)

2.2 Product Portfolio

Changxin Technology has developed a diversified product lineup including DDR series and LPDDR series, covering full-scenario needs from entry-level to high-end:

• DDR4/DDR5: Targeting PCs, servers, data centers; DDR5 speed exceeds 8000Mbps, single chip max capacity 24Gb
• LPDDR4X/LPDDR5/5X: Targeting smartphones, AI terminals, new energy vehicles; LPDDR5X max speed reaches 10667Mbps
• DRAM Modules: Full series covering consumer, enterprise, and industrial grades

The company's products have entered mainstream server supply chains and achieved mass production of DDR5 memory chips, marking the alignment of domestic DRAM with international mainstream generations.

2.3 Shareholder Structure: State-owned Capital + Industrial Capital + Renowned Institutions Triple-Drive

Changxin Technology has no controlling shareholder or actual controller, with a highly dispersed ownership structure, forming a unique "mixed-ownership" capital structure:

• Data Source: Changxin Technology IPO Prospectus *

Alibaba's nearly 4% stake is particularly noteworthy — its subsidiary Alibaba Cloud is both a core major customer of Changxin and plays a crucial "endorser" role. This "customer as shareholder" tie provides Changxin Technology with a stable order base in the domestic market.

2.4 Patent Portfolio: Breaking Overseas Blockade

As of June 2025, Changxin Technology holds a total of 5,589 patents domestically and internationally, including 2,473 core patents abroad, covering the entire DRAM industry chain from design, manufacturing, packaging to testing. The company has successfully broken the patent barrier blockade by overseas companies in the DRAM field through a combination of independent R&D and patent licensing cooperation (such as the technology agreement with Qimonda).

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3. Financial Data Analysis: From 7.87 Billion Loss to 360 Million Daily Profit

Changxin Technology's financial data is the best sample to understand the power of this super cycle in the storage industry. From a loss of 7.87 billion yuan in 2024 to a quarterly profit of 24.762 billion yuan in Q1 2026, the company achieved a performance turnaround in less than a year and a half.

3.1 Explosive Revenue Growth

• Data Source: Changxin Technology IPO Prospectus *

From 2023 to 2025, Changxin Technology's operating revenue achieved a compound annual growth rate of 160.78%, a rate extremely rare among global semiconductor companies.

3.2 Leap in Profitability

In Q1 2026, Changxin Technology's net profit attributable to the parent company ranked first among companies listed on the ChiNext board and 13th among all A-share companies, just behind super giants such as ICBC, China Mobile, PetroChina, and Kweichow Moutai. Calculated on the basis of 90 days for Q1, Changxin Technology's average daily profit is about 275 million yuan; if calculated based on the expected median of 53.5 billion yuan for the first half of the year, the average daily profit is about 296 million yuan.

3.3 Gross Profit Margin and Profit Margin Analysis

The rapid increase in gross profit margin is mainly due to two factors:

1. DRAM Product Prices Continue to Rise: In 2024 and 2025, the year-on-year changes in sales prices for major DRAM products are 55.08% and 33.69%, respectively.

2. Economies of Scale Unlocked: Capacity utilization has increased from around 60% at the cycle bottom to over 95%, significantly reducing unit fixed costs.

3.4 Core Profit Drivers

Changxin Technology explicitly states in its prospectus that the key reasons for its explosive growth include:

• Sustained Global Computing Demand: Massive DRAM requirements for AI large model training and inference.
• Major Manufacturers' Capacity Allocation: Samsung and SK Hynix are shifting most of their advanced process capacity to HBM high-bandwidth memory, widening the supply gap for general-purpose DRAM.
• Growth in Production and Sales Scale: Continuous capacity ramp-up at three wafer fabs in Hefei and Beijing.
• Product Mix Optimization: Rapid increase in the proportion of high-end products such as DDR5 and LPDDR5.

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4. Industry Landscape: Rise of the Global DRAM "Fourth Pole"

4.1 Global DRAM Market Landscape

The DRAM industry is one of the most concentrated semiconductor segments globally, long dominated by the "Big Three" — Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology. According to Omdia data, the global DRAM market share distribution for 2025 is as follows:

Source: Omdia

The Big Three collectively account for over 90% of the global DRAM market, forming a highly oligopolistic structure. Changxin Technology, as the sole Chinese mainland player, ranks fourth globally with a 7.67% share, breaking the decades-long dominance of the "Japan-South Korea-US" trio.

4.2 Rapid Market Share Growth

Changxin Technology's market expansion is remarkable:

• Q2 2025: Global market share around 3.97%
• Q4 2025: Global market share jumps to 7.67%
• Doubles in Six Months: Achieves a doubling of its share in just two quarters

At this growth rate, institutions widely predict that Changxin Technology could increase its global market share to 10%-12% by the end of 2026, further closing in on Micron Technology (23.41%).

4.3 Super Cycle in Memory: AI-Driven Industry Boom

The current DRAM industry is experiencing a once-in-a-century super boom cycle, with the core driver being the explosion of the AI industry:

Demand Side:

• AI large model training and inference require massive DRAM support.
• DRAM configuration per AI server is 3-5 times higher than traditional servers.
• Ongoing global data center construction wave.

Supply Side:

• Samsung and SK Hynix are significantly shifting advanced capacity to HBM (High Bandwidth Memory).
• Insufficient investment in general-purpose DRAM capacity, widening the supply-demand gap.
• DRAM prices continue to rise sharply from the second half of 2025.

Market Size Forecast: According to Omdia data, the global DRAM market size is expected to grow from $150.5 billion in 2025 to $571 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 30.56%.

Changxin Technology also candidly warns in its prospectus that this industry boom cycle is likely to extend until mid-2027, but cautions against the risk of a cyclical reversal due to subsequent concentrated capacity releases.

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5. Technology Roadmap Analysis: "Leapfrog Development" to Catch Up with International Giants

5.1 Four-Generation Process Platform Mass Production

Changxin Technology adopts a "steady iteration, leapfrog development" technology strategy, completing the R&D and mass production of four generations of DRAM process platforms since its establishment in 2016:

Data source: SemiAnalysis, ChangXin Technology prospectus

In 2024, ChangXin Technology launched a new generation of 16Gb DDR5 products, skipping the 17nm node and directly adopting the 16nm node, further narrowing the process gap with overseas manufacturers. The current mass production yield has stabilized above 80%, reaching the industry's mature production standard.

5.2 DDR5/LPDDR5X Breakthrough

ChangXin Technology has achieved international competitiveness in the DDR5 and LPDDR5X fields:

• DDR5 products: Speed exceeds 8000Mbps, maximum single-chip capacity of 24Gb, has entered the mainstream server supply chain
• LPDDR5X products: Maximum speed of 10,667Mbps, 66% performance improvement over the previous generation, fully compatible with high-end mobile phones and AI terminals

According to TrendForce data, ChangXin Technology's DDR5 market share increased from 1% at the beginning of 2025 to 7% by the end of the year, while LPDDR5 share rose from 0.5% in Q1 to 9% by the end of the year, far exceeding market expectations.

5.3 HBM Strategy: Gaps and Challenges

HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is currently the core storage component for AI computing power and the area where ChangXin Technology lags furthest behind international giants:

Data source: SemiAnalysis, industry research

SemiAnalysis analysis indicates that ChangXin Technology's HBM3 8-high front-end yield is about 35%, back-end yield is about 70%, with a combined yield of only about 25%. This means the company's effective HBM output under the same DRAM wafer capacity is far lower than that of first-tier suppliers.

It is worth noting that ChangXin Technology's 295 billion yuan fundraising does not include any specific HBM projects, reflecting the company's current strategic priority to ensure its core DRAM business rather than competing head-on with international giants in the HBM field.

5.4 Next-Generation Technology Exploration

ChangXin Technology is actively advancing 4F² vertical channel transistors, CBA (CMOS directly Bonded to Array) and other new technology solutions. These areas are still in the exploration stage for domestic and foreign manufacturers, providing domestic firms with the possibility of "overtaking on the curve."

In addition, the company is actively advancing the transition from G4 (1α equivalent) to G5 (1β equivalent, about 10-12nm) process nodes to meet the needs of DDR5, LPDDR5X and automotive/AI memory. However, advancing to more advanced nodes without relying on EUV lithography will face increasingly severe manufacturing and design challenges.

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6. Use of Raised Funds: 295 Billion Yuan Allocation

ChangXin Technology's IPO aims to raise 295 billion yuan, with the following specific allocations:

6.1 Technology Upgrade and Transformation of Mass Production Line for Memory Wafer Manufacturing (75 billion yuan)

Used for technology transformation and capacity upgrade of the existing three 12-inch wafer production lines, focusing on:

• Process node migration from G3 to G4
• Maintaining capacity utilization above 95%
• Further reducing unit costs

Technology Upgrades and Industrialization for Next-Generation DRAM Products:

• Mass production of DDR5, LPDDR5/5X
• Stable production and yield improvement of G4 process platform
• Product performance and power consumption optimization

6.3 Forward-Looking R&D for Dynamic Random Access Memory Technology (¥9 billion)

Pre-research for next-generation DRAM technologies:

• HBM technology reserves (8-high/12-high)
• Advanced processes including G5 (1β equivalent) and beyond
• Exploration of new memory architectures (4F², CBA, etc.)

Fundraising Structure Analysis: Approximately 69.5% of funds are allocated to wafer production line construction and existing technology upgrades, while 30.5% is dedicated to forward-looking technology R&D. This structure reflects the company's current strategy of primarily consolidating its core DRAM business, with HBM and other high-end areas as long-term reserves.

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Seven Core Competitive Advantages and Risk Factors

7.1 Six Core Competitive Advantages

1. Unique Domestic Player Changxin Technology is the only IDM enterprise in mainland China that has achieved large-scale commercialization of general-purpose DRAM, holding an irreplaceable strategic position.

2. Production Capacity Scale Advantage Owns three 12-inch wafer fabs with a capacity of 300,000 wafers/month by the end of 2025, representing a nearly 50% year-on-year increase.

3. Deep Customer Ties Domestic leading enterprises such as Alibaba, ByteDance, and Huawei are all core customers. Strong domestic substitution willingness and supply chain security needs provide stable orders.

4. Capital Structure Advantage A mixed-ownership structure with no controlling shareholder, coupled with multiple supports from the National IC Fund, local state-owned capital, and industrial capital, provides strong "anti-cyclical endurance".

5. R&D Investment Intensity Cumulative R&D investment from 2023 to 2025 is approximately ¥206 billion, with R&D investment accounting for an average of over 20% of revenue, far exceeding the 10%-15% R&D ratio of overseas giants.

6. Policy Dividends As the first project under the "pre-review" mechanism, it enjoys regulatory policy preferences; it also benefits from the national strategy of accelerating domestic substitution.

7.2 Five Core Risk Factors

1. Industry Cycle Volatility Risk (High) The memory chip industry has significant cyclical characteristics, with the "three years up, three years down" pattern unchanged for a century. Current DRAM prices, gross profit margins, and corporate profitability are at historical highs. Capacity concentration in 2027 may trigger a deep price correction (estimated 20%-50%).

2. HBM Technology Gap Risk (High) Changxin Technology lags international giants by 2-3 generations and 2-3 years in the HBM field, completely missing out on this round of AI high-end storage dividends. Failure to achieve breakthroughs in the short term will result in a continuous absence from the high-margin AI storage market.

3. Heavy Asset Depreciation Pressure (Medium) As of the end of 2025, the book value of fixed assets is as high as ¥1,830.24 billion, accounting for 54.34% of total assets. Depreciation in 2025 will reach ¥246.8 billion and continue to grow. Once industry prices fall, huge fixed costs will quickly erode profits.

4. Technology Catch-Up Risk (Medium) Access restrictions on advanced lithography machines (EUV and some high-performance DUV) extend the yield ramp-up cycle for new processes. The gap with international giants in advanced processes may persist.

5. Competitive Landscape Risk (Medium) The top three DRAM producers have monthly capacities exceeding 1 million wafers each, while Changxin Technology's monthly capacity is only 300,000 wafers. The scale effect gap is significant, and raw material procurement and equipment maintenance costs are inherently at a disadvantage.

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Eight Industry Chain Beneficiaries

The IPO and subsequent expansion of Changxin Technology will drive the entire semiconductor industry chain to enjoy a multi-year dividend cycle from top to bottom. Based on the benefit logic, core targets can be divided into four tiers:

8.1 First Tier: Equity-Bound Enterprises (Highest IPO Elasticity)

8.2 Second Tier: Upstream Semiconductor Equipment (Direct Benefit from Expansion)

8.3 Third Tier: Core Material Suppliers (Consumables, Scaling with Capacity)

8.4 Fourth Tier: Packaging and Testing (Strong Order Certainty)

• Data Source: Brokerage Reports, Industry Chain Research *

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Nine, Complete Guide to Participating in the Largest IPO of 2026

With ChangXin Technology's IPO being the largest in terms of shares issued in the history of the ChiNext board and the biggest IPO in the A-share market in 2026, investor enthusiasm is unprecedented. Below is a comprehensive guide for investors covering subscription conditions, probability of winning the lottery, and single-lot returns.

9.1 Subscription Conditions and Thresholds

Step 1: Activate ChiNext Trading Permissions

Investors need to activate ChiNext trading permissions in advance and must meet the following conditions simultaneously:

Step 2: Allocate Shanghai Market Value

• Average Shanghai market value held in the 20 trading days before T-2 day (July 14) ≥ 10,000 RMB
• Every 5,000 RMB of Shanghai market value corresponds to 1 subscription unit (500 shares)
• Shenzhen market holdings do not count towards ChiNext new share market value

Key Reminder: Holding only Shenzhen and ChiNext stocks, even with a portfolio worth millions, does not qualify for ChangXin Technology's IPO. Shanghai market stocks must be allocated.

• Data Source: Changxin Technology IPO Announcement *

9.3 Subscription Rate Estimation

Changxin Technology's initial online public offering of 669 million shares is the largest in the history of the ChiNext market. Based on historical data from large IPOs, institutions have conducted multi-scenario estimations for the subscription rate:

• Data Source: Broker Estimates, Jisi Lu *

Key Conclusions:

• ¥500,000 in Shanghai market value yields 100 lottery numbers, with at least 1 lottery win probability of ~36% under mainstream expectations.
• ¥1.13 million in market value yields 226 lottery numbers, theoretically guaranteeing 1 win at a 0.45% subscription rate.
• Given Changxin Technology's high attention and expected over 7 million subscription accounts, the actual subscription rate may lean towards the "High Heat" scenario.

9.4 Single Lottery Profit Estimation: Post-IPO Market Cap Scenarios

Winning one lottery for Changxin Technology requires a payment of ¥4,330 (¥8.66 × 500 shares). Post-IPO profit for a single lottery under different market cap scenarios:

• Note: Total shares outstanding after IPO calculated at 66.88 billion shares; above is purely theoretical and not investment advice *

Market Mainstream Expectations:

• Institutional Neutral Expectation: Post-IPO market cap ¥2-3 trillion, corresponding share price around ¥30-45, single lottery profit ¥10,000-20,000.
• Optimistic Expectation: Market cap breaking ¥4 trillion, challenging top spot in A-share market cap (current top is Kweichow Moutai at ~¥2.3 trillion).
• Conservative Expectation: Market cap ¥1-1.5 trillion, corresponding share price ¥15-22, single lottery profit around ¥3,000-7,000.

Comparison Reference: Since 2025, ChiNext new stocks' average first-day increase has been 489.83%, with average single lottery profit around ¥108,700. As a super-large-cap stock, Changxin Technology's price increase elasticity is lower than small-cap stocks, but the absolute return is still substantial.

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10. Valuation Analysis and Investment Outlook

10.1 IPO Valuation

Changxin Technology's official IPO price is 8.66 yuan per share, with a total share count of approximately 66.88 billion shares after issuance, corresponding to a market cap of 5,791.78 billion yuan (before the exercise of the over-allotment option).

IPO Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio Analysis:

• Static PE Ratio: 308.92x (calculated based on the lower of net profit before and after non-operating items in 2025 on a diluted basis)
• Industry Average PE Ratio: 76.32x
• Comparable Companies Average PE Ratio: 134.62x

Although the static PE of 308.92x appears extremely high, it's important to note that 2025 is the company's first year of profitability (net profit of 1.875 billion yuan), with a very low profit base. If we consider the projected full-year net profit of 100-150 billion yuan in 2026, the forward PE is only about 4-6x, making the valuation highly attractive.

Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio at IPO: 5.06x, within a reasonable range for the semiconductor industry.

10.2 Post-IPO Market Cap Outlook and Price Increase Analysis

Based on different profit assumptions and valuation multiples, we project Changxin Technology's market cap after listing under various scenarios:

• Note: The above valuations are purely theoretical calculations and do not constitute investment advice *

Valuation Benchmarking: SK Hynix's current market cap is approximately 180 billion USD (about 13,000 billion yuan), corresponding to a PE ratio of about 20-25x based on 2025 net profit. Considering Changxin Technology's higher growth rate (projected net profit growth over 5,000% in 2026), the scarcity of domestic alternatives, and the premium in the A-share market, a PE ratio of 20-25x is reasonable.

10.3 Investment Strategy Recommendations

For IPO Investors:

• As a "national flagship" level rare asset, Changxin Technology is likely to see significant premiums on its listing day
• Since 2025, all A-share IPOs have closed in the green on their first day, with an average first-day gain of 489.83% for ChiNext new stocks
• Even with a conservative +100% gain, the profit per lot would be about 4,330 yuan
• Investors with ChiNext access are advised to fully subscribe, as getting one lot means making one lot

For Secondary Market Investors:

• Short-term (2026-2027H1): The industry supercycle continues, with full production and sales + high gross profit margins, likely keeping the stock price strong
• Medium-term (after 2027H2): Beware of the industry cycle turning point, as concentrated capacity releases may cause a sharp price correction
• Long-term: HBM technology breakthrough progress will be the key to valuation differentiation
• Beware of liquidity impact: With a market cap of 2 trillion yuan and a first-day turnover rate of 5%-10%, the single-day trading volume could reach 1,000-2,000 billion yuan, potentially causing a liquidity drain in the market

For Industry Chain Investors:

• Equipment segment (North Huachuang, Advanced Micro-Fabrication, Tuo Jing Technology) has the highest certainty of benefiting, with clear order growth trends

• Material segment (Yoke Technology, Anji Technology, Dinglong Holdings) will grow steadily as capacity ramps up

• Packaging and testing segment (Desay SV, Tongfu Microelectronics) will directly benefit from increased shipments

• Equity-linked targets (GigaDevice, Hefei Urban Construction) have significant short-term sentiment premiums

• Online Subscription Code: 787825

• Stock Code/Offline Subscription Code: 688825

• IPO Price: 8.66 RMB per share

• Subscription Date: Thursday, July 16, 2026

• Subscription Limit: 1,672,000 shares (maximum subscription requires Shanghai market value of 16.72 million RMB)

• Single Subscription Payment: 4,330 RMB (500 shares × 8.66 RMB)

• Lottery Results/Payment Date: July 20, 2026 (T+2), ensure sufficient funds in account by 16:00 on that day

The online subscription code is 787825, and the stock code is 688825 (ChiNext board). The offline subscription date and online subscription date are both July 16, 2026.

Q2: What does CXMT do?

CXMT is China's only IDM company achieving large-scale commercial production of general-purpose DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory), focusing on DRAM chip design, R&D, manufacturing, and sales. Its products cover DDR and LPDDR series, widely used in servers, mobile phones, PCs, smart cars, and other fields.

Q3: Why did CXMT turn profitable in 2025?

Mainly due to DRAM product prices rising continuously from the second half of 2025, coupled with the company's expanded production and sales scale and optimized product structure. In 2024 and 2025, the average selling price of major DRAM products increased by 55.08% and 33.69% year-on-year, pushing the gross profit margin from 5.00% in 2024 to 41.02% in 2025.

Q4: How far is CXMT from international giants (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron)?

In general-purpose DRAM, the gap has significantly narrowed — CXMT has completed mass production of DDR5 and LPDDR5X, with core products reaching international advanced levels. However, in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), the gap remains 2-3 generations and 2-3 years, with commercial production not yet achieved.

Q5: How will CXMT use the 29.5 billion RMB raised in its IPO?

7.5 billion RMB for wafer fab upgrades, 13 billion RMB for DRAM technology upgrades, and 9 billion RMB for forward-looking technology R&D. Focus on capacity expansion, process iteration, and next-generation technology reserves.

Q6: What market cap can CXMT reach after listing? What is the corresponding increase?

CXMT's IPO market cap is about 579.2 billion RMB (IPO price 8.66 RMB). Market consensus expectations are as follows:

Referencing global giants like SK Hynix with 20-25x PE valuations, combined with CXMT's higher growth rate and domestic substitution scarcity, the neutral expectation is a market cap of 2-3 trillion RMB after listing, with a corresponding price of about 30-45 RMB. If market sentiment is strong, a market cap exceeding 4 trillion RMB and challenging for the top spot in A-share market cap is not impossible.

Risk Warning: The above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. ChiNext IPOs have no price limits for the first five trading days, so stock price volatility will be high.

Market optimism predicts a potential breakthrough of 1 trillion RMB. Referencing international valuations (15-25x PE) and considering CXMT's higher growth rate and domestic substitution premium, a trillion-yuan valuation has theoretical support, but beware of industry cyclical fluctuation risks.

Q7: What impact will CXMT's IPO have on the A-share semiconductor sector?

CXMT's IPO will directly drive order growth for semiconductor equipment, materials, packaging and testing, and other supply chain enterprises, while reshaping the pricing system of the storage sector through a "valuation anchoring effect". 27 core supply chain enterprises are expected to benefit continuously.

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Conclusion

CXMT's IPO is not just the listing of a company, but a milestone event in China's storage chip industry's journey toward self-reliance. From ChiNext board application on December 30, 2025, to IPO subscription on July 16, 2026, completing the entire process in less than 7 months sets a new record for efficiency in large-scale hard tech IPOs in China.

Core Investment Logic:

Short-Term View: Cycle

Through H1 2027, the DRAM supercycle persists. ChangXin Technology will maintain full production and sales at high margins, with results likely to keep exceeding expectations.

Medium-Term View: Capacity Expansion

With the completion of its $29.5 billion fundraising, production capacity will rise from 300,000 wafers/month to even higher levels, potentially capturing over 10% of the global market share.

Long-Term View: Technology

The company's ability to evolve from a "cyclical stock" to a "growth stock" will hinge on progress in HBM technology, advanced node iteration capabilities, and cost control optimization.

Risk Warning

The memory chip industry is highly cyclical. Current profitability is at historical highs, and a concentrated capacity release after 2027 could trigger a sharp price correction. Investors should fully recognize the cyclical risks of the industry and avoid excessive optimism at cyclical peaks when participating in ChangXin Technology's IPO and secondary market investments.

For China's entire semiconductor industry, ChangXin Technology's successful listing means domestic DRAM now has a capital platform to compete with international giants. As capacity expands, technology iterates, and supply chain synergies deepen, China's memory chip industry is poised to play an increasingly significant role in the global landscape.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on ChangXin Technology's public prospectus and industry data for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Stock markets are risky, so invest with caution.

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• Data Sources: ChangXin Technology Prospectus (December 30, 2025 draft, May 17, 2026 updated version), Omdia, TrendForce, SemiAnalysis, brokerage research reports, Shanghai Stock Exchange announcements
• Written: July 2026